When Buyers Can Walk, and Sellers Can Wait

Last month I explained why lenders couldn't keep sacrificing profits to hold mortgage rates down. October brought a spike to their highest levels since 2023 before pulling back somewhat.

But rather than relitigate how rates stink, here's a far more interesting question: With rates still above 7%, wars abroad, and affordability woes at home, how are roughly four million deals a year still making it to the closing table?

The deals going the distance aren't closing because one side holds all the cards. They're closing because two parties find a way to build a deal when neither side does.

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The 6 Forces That Will Shape Real Estate in 2026 (Whether We’re Ready or Not)

Every January, the real estate world lines up to make predictions.
Rates will do this.
Prices will do that.
Buyers will return.
Sellers will wait.

You’re probably already seeing some of those articles.

But in my experience, markets don’t move in a vacuum. They move because of forces. Structural pressures, behavioral shifts, and incentives that shape decisions long before the headlines catch up.

So instead of guessing what might happen in 2026, I want to share how I’m thinking about the year ahead based on what’s already in motion. These are the forces that we believe will define real estate in 2026, whether we like them or not.

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Compass Real Estate, Real Estate Scott Glass Compass Real Estate, Real Estate Scott Glass

The Real Story Behind the Affordability Crunch

The housing market isn’t crashing or reversing — it’s stabilizing after a 50% jump in prices since 2019. But that stability comes with a new challenge: affordability. With rates high, incomes lagging, and inventory tight, buyers are waiting longer than ever to enter the market, and nearly half of all movers now relocate primarily for cost of living. As we head into 2026, navigating affordability — not predicting a crash — is the defining factor for buyers and sellers alike.

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